Looking Beyond Numbers: Behavioral Wallet Analysis

You’ve likely noticed how relying solely on win rates and ROI when analyzing wallets to copy trading decisions leaves out crucial parts of the story. While these metrics matter (as we covered in our previous guide), understanding wallet behavior reveals insights that numbers alone can’t show.

Trading Patterns

Through our analysis of many wallets, it was discovered that the rhythm and timing of trades reveal far more about a wallet’s strategy than its raw performance metrics. You’ll want to focus on identifying methodical trading sequences that align with specific market conditions, as this approach consistently helps spot wallets with sustainable strategies that are very overlooked by many people (because the only focus on number metrics).

Let’s address a common scenario that highlights why behavioral analysis matters: You might come across a wallet with a low win rate that appears to be consistently losing money. However, upon closer inspection, you realize it’s actually generating profits through effective roundtrip trades (which means it doesn’t take profits and ends up riding the token until it dies) or simply missing optimal exit points. 

If you had relied solely on static metrics like win rate and ROI, you might have overlooked some potentially profitable wallets.

Of course, analyzing the detailed behavior of every wallet isn’t practical. That’s why it is recommend starting with a quick initial screening process. In our experience, these key metrics serve as effective filters.

Your initial check should confirm (In order):

  • The wallet is currently profitable
  • Win rate exceeds 50% (ideally 60% or higher)
  • ROI demonstrates strong returns (above 50%)
  • Trading sizes show consistency rather than erratic changes

Smart Money Moves

The way wallets adjust their position sizes across different market conditions reveals crucial insights. The most reliable wallets demonstrate sophisticated scaling patterns, starting conservative and increasing exposure only when their strategy proves effective. This dynamic risk management approach helps distinguish professional traders from lucky ones who are just gambling.

The most successful wallets maintain a steady pattern in their position sizing, making notable size increases only when their confidence is particularly high. Equally important is their buy/sell ratio: how often they sell compared to how often they buy can reveal crucial insights about their strategy and risk management.

As can be seen above, the example wallet (7bHHeSmhyQFjEkg7y4GyEAqidVEqn3k29QNDLKYNqJqp) is constantly buying once, which, asides from showing consistency, show confidence. A wallet that buys only once but is making very good profits with a high win rate? Must definitely know something!

This point closely relates to consistency in trading. Consider a wallet that typically trades with 1 SOL, but occasionally places larger 3-5 SOL trades that result in exceptional returns. Such behavior might indicate insider knowledge of certain projects. To validate this pattern, observe if these larger-than-usual positions consistently result in higher returns. When this occurs repeatedly, it suggests there’s valuable intelligence behind these trades that you should pay attention to.

Taking the previous wallet as an again, we can see that whenever this wallet buys with a bigger size than normal, tends to lose a lot. Therefore, you can safely avoid copytrading tokens if he buys with more than 1-2 Solanas.

Entry Points

When analyzing wallets, you can spot clear patterns in how they select their tokens. The best performers tend to show remarkable consistency in their entry points: Does the wallet buy a token in the very early stages? Does it buy multi-million Marketcap Tokens? Interestingly, when these wallets trade early-stage tokens on pump.fun or pre-bonding, they achieve higher ROIs compared to their trades on larger market cap tokens (obviously). However, this is a double-edged sword, as very poorly established tokens (with a very small marketcap) are much more likely to die faster than established tokens, so the gains are higher (because the chance of loss is also higher).

For example, taking the following wallet as an example: 6oXqLE7x8wjJcSuSTCGpkr44a2aGUFj1oSmQcGqHGkfj (this wallet is heavily copytraded by the way), we can see how his biggest hits come from constantly buying tokens during the pump.fun phase (before they migrate):

Does this mean you can copytrade all his pump.fun buys? Absolutely not, but you should identify the wallet’s trading pattern and keep it in mind while monitoring/copytrading it. This way, you’ll have an edge over your other copytraders.

Taking Profits & Market Adaptation

Achieving impressive returns occasionally doesn’t tell the whole story. What truly matters is finding wallets that hit those 2-3x gains consistently, rather than getting lucky once in a while. This steady approach shows a wallet who knows what they’re doing, not someone who got lucky.

Pay attention to how wallets handle their exits. Strong traders show clear patterns: They don’t just randomly take profits. They adapt based on how the token is moving and what the market’s doing. You’ll notice they might hold longer during strong trends or take quicker profits in choppy markets, but they stick to their core strategy.

For instance, taking as reference the following wallet: 79ghxHDPFM3uSEpq9rKEDbgcXY1DSDtKMNJoBU5TxnHj, we can see that despite having some losses (which can be reduce with a strict stop loss profile), it consistently has some significative ROIs, which means this wallet might have got some “insider” information about it (not always the case).

Here’s a crucial warning sign: when a wallet suddenly changes how it trades, especially the size of trades or how often it trades, something’s probably wrong. If you spot this, seriously consider stopping your copytrading.

Closing Thoughts

While initial metrics like win rate and ROI give us a good starting point, digging deeper into wallet behavior can be incredibly rewarding. 

Yes, it takes more time to analyze patterns in position sizing, trading frequency, and market adaptation, but this extra effort often reveals gems that others might miss. 

Just remember: There’s no such thing as perfect wallet analysis. These patterns and behaviors should guide your decisions, not rule them. Use this behavioral analysis as one more tool in your arsenal, alongside traditional metrics and your own judgment.